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Daily Summary Warning - May 5th 2024

The earthquake activity (M6+ eccentricity = imbalance) in Asia-Pacific is greater than average at 1.62 today compared with the typical month of May average of 1.35 (note the lunar Phase Ratio (PR) is now (since 22^nd April) at PR>1 so that large quakes are more likely in the periods close to new and full moon. The activity in the last 2 weeks in Asia-Pacific region has been high recently with M5.5+ almost every day and one or more M6+ events every 3 weeks.

Results from Yesterday 04^th May 2024- 0hrs to 24hrs UTC):

Asia-Pacific: according to our information there were a total of 6 events of M4+ and 4 events of M4.5. Of these about 10 out of 10 events could be associated with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was low, and less than expected as our daily strength forecast indicated some events in the M5+ level.

America: according to our information there were a total of 12 events of M4+ and 2 events of M4.5 in this area during the 24-hour period.  Of these, 11 of 14 events could be associated with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was low and less than expected. There were total of 34 ineffective forecasts for this period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 26%).

Europe/Africa: - 0 x M4+ and 0 x M4.5 with 1 x M5.5+ (N. of Ascension Isles) events were noted in this region during the 24-hour period, 1 of which could be identified with our hourly forecasts for the day. So that activity was moderate-hi - and greater than expected. There were total of 38 ineffective hourly forecasts for this period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 3%).

Forecast for Today:

Today 05^th May 2024 (UTC/GMT), the overall daily M5+ probability in Asia- Pacific is Low 24% (am) to Medium 35% (pm) and the M5+ stress eccentricity is 2.03 (medium) which indicates widespread activity in the region today. The lunar phase strength is 43% (medium), so that M4+ to M5+ intensity quakes are expected in Asia-Pacific today.

Asia-Pacific: probability (2.0=max:M5+ stress transfer/ %= overall incl. lunar) today is for N/S Sumatra/ Nicobar/Myanmar (Med-lo(am)/Medium(pm)), 1.0/31%(am) /43% (pm)), Java (Low/Med-lo, 1.6/23%/25%), Gensan/ Davao/ S. of Phils. (Med-hi/ Low, 1.9/41%/28%), Surigao/Samar (Med-lo/Low, 0.3/31%/30%), Manila/Batangas/ Mindoro (Medium/Medium, 0.3/39%/41%), Baguio (Low/ Med-hi, 0.3/28%/45%), Taiwan/Ryukyu/China (Low/High, 0.4/26%/42%), Kyushu, Izu/Bonin isles (Med-Lo, 0.9, 23%/25%), E Honshu/ Tokyo (Medium /Medium, 2.0/38%/41%), Hokkaido/Kuril (Med-lo/Med-lo, 0.5/22%/22%).

America: Activity has been less than average, recently with M4.5+ daily and M6+ every 4 weeks.  – low to moderate activity most likely M4+ to M5+ today: S. Mexico, NC/SC Chile, N/C/S. Peru, NW Argentina, Alaska, Baja, S. California, Colombia, Honduras, Nicaragua, S. Sandwich Isles, S. Bolivia, Ecuador, Guatemala, Panama, S. of Cuba.

Europe/Africa: - most likely M4+ to M5+ - low to moderate activity today –Aegean, Albania, Ascension Island, Afghanistan, Atlantic, Austria, France, Spain, Canary Isles, Gulf of Aden, C/SE. Italy, Greece, Crete, Cyprus, Croatia, Germany, Slovenia, Serbia, Montenegro, NC/W/E. Turkey, Zimbabwe, Reykjanes Ridge, S. Africa, Djibouti, Bouvet Island, Egypt, Gabon.

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