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Comparison of forecasts against actual events for year 2014

2014-08-04 00:00:00 Admin Prediction vs Actual

America

Event Date Actual Time UTC Actual Location Actual Strength Forecast Date Time UTC Forecast Location Strength Lunar Forecast Sub-Latitude Forecast
13/01/14 04am Puerto Rico M6.4 13/01/14 12 (noon) S of Puerto Rico M6+ H Fair
1/2/2014 04am S Sandwich Isles M6.0 1/2/2014 12 (noon) Cape Horn M6+ MH Fair
18/2/2014 09am E Martinique (Windward Isles) M6.5 18/2/2014 09am Ecuador M6+ MH Less
19/2/2014 00am Off C Peru M6.0 19/2/2014 00am N Peru M6+ L Medium
26/2/2014 21pm Alaska(Fox, Aleutian Isles) M6.1 27/2/2014 21pm Gulf of Alaska M6+ MH Less
2/3/2014 10am Off Nicaragua M6.2 2/3/2014 13pm Off Nicaragua M6+ L Medium
10/3/2014 05am Off N California M6.9 11/3/2014 06am Off N California M6+ L Fair
11/3/2014 03am S Sandwich Isles M6.4 11/3/2014 01am Cape Horn M6+ MH Fair
15/3/2014 09am Off C Peru M6.2 15/3/2014 13pm C Peru M6+ L Fair
16/3/2014 00am Off N Peru M6.3 16/3/2014 00am S Peru (W of La Paz) M6+ ML Fair
16/3/2014 21pm N Chile (Tarapaca) M6.7 17/3/2014 02am NC Chile (Tarapaca) M7.1 MH Med-Hi
17/3/2014 05am N Chile (Tarapaca) M6.2 17/3/2014 02am NC Chile (Tarapaca) M7.1 MH Medium
18/3/2014 21pm N Chile (Tarapaca) M6.0 18/3/2014 22pm N Chile M6+ MH Fair
22/3/2014 13pm Off N Chile (Tarapaca) M6.3 22/3/2014 14pm NC Chile M6+ MH Medium
23/3/2014 18pm Off N Chile (Tarapaca) M6.3 23/3/2014 15pm NC Chile M6+ L High
2/4/2014 00am Off NC Chile (Tarapaca) M8.0 2/4/2014 05am NC Chile M8 MH High
2/4/2014 16pm S of Panama M6.0 2/4/2014 17pm Venezuela M6+ H Medium
3/4/2014 02am Off NC Chile (Tarapaca) M6.4 3/4/2014 00am NW Argentina M7 H Medium
3/4/2014 03am Off NC Chile (Tarapaca) M7.6 3/4/2014 08am NC Chile M7.3 H Medium
3/4/2014 05am Off NC Chile (Tarapaca) M6.3 3/4/2014 08am NC Chile M7.3 H Medium
4/4/2014 02am Off NC Chile (Tarapaca) M6.2 4/4/2014 07am NC Chile M6+ ML Med-Hi
10/4/2014 23pm Nicaragua M6.1 11/4/2014 01am Nicaragua (Managua) M6+ L Fair
11/4/2014 00am Off NC Chile (Tarapaca) M6.1 11/4/2014 03am N Chile M7.3 H Med-Hi
11/4/2014 20pm Nicaragua M6.6 11/4/2014 19pm Off Nicaragua M6+ H Medium
18/4/2014 14pm S Mexico (Guerrero) M7.2 18/4/2014 21pm S Mexico (Michoacan) M6+ L Medium
24/4/2014 03am Canada (Vancouver Island) M6.5 24/4/2014 03am Canada (Vancouver Island) M6+ ML Less
6/5/2014 21pm SW Chile Rise M6.3 7/5/2014 00am Pacific (W of SC Chile) M6+ L Med-Hi
8/5/2014 17pm S Mexico (Guerrero) M6.4 8/5/2014 18pm S Mexico M6+ L Med-Hi
10/5/2014 08am S Mexico (Guerrero) M6.1 10/5/2014 02am S Mexico (Acapulco) M6+ L Fair
12/5/2014 19pm SE Pacific Rise M6.5 13/5/2014 04am S Pacific-Antactic M6+ H Medium
13/5/2014 07am S of Panama M6.5 13/5/2014 00am S Panama M6+ L Medium
31/5/2014 12 (noon) S Mexico (Jalisco) M6.2 31/5/2014 16pm Off S Mexico M6+ H Fair
23/6/2014 21pm Alaska(Rat, Aleutian Isles) M7.9 23/6/2014 11am Gulf of Alaska M6+ MH Medium
24/6/2014 03am Alaska(Rat, Aleutian Isles) M6.6 24/6/2014 12 (noon) Gulf of Alaska M6+ MH Fair
7/7/2014 11am S Mexico (Chiapas) M6.9 7/7/2014 11am Off S Mexico (Chiapas) M6+ MH Med-Hi
17/7/2014 12 (noon) Canada (South Yukon) M6.0 17/7/2014 14pm Off West Coast Canada M6+ L Fair
29/7/2014 11am S Mexico (Veracruz) M6.3 29/7/2014 09am S Mexico (S Mexico City) M6+ H Med-Hi
23/8/2014
23pm
SC Chile (Valparaiso)
M6.4
24/8/2014
03am
Off S Chile (Aisen)
M6+
MH
Med-hi
24/8/2014
10am
California (SF Bay)
M6.1
25/8/2014
10am
Off N California
M7.2
MH
Medium
24/8/2014
23pm
C Peru
M6.9
24/8/2014
23pm
S Peru  
M6+
H
Less

Asia-Pacific

Event Date Actual Time UTC Actual Location Actual Strength Forecast Date Time UTC Forecast Location Strength Lunar Forecast Sub-Latitude Forecast 5-day ecc monthly ecc M5+ ecc M5+ stress M5+ probability A-P day M7 day
20/01/14 03am N New Zealand M6.3 18/01/14 01am S New Zealand M6+ MH N/A              
25/01/14 05am Java M6.2 28/01/14 03am W Java M6+   Less 1.42 1.41 1.99 0.4 27% 26% 50%
12/2/2014 09am S Xinjiang M6.9 12/2/2014 05am N Qinghai M6+   Fair (Taiwan) 1.46 1.5 2.04 0.4 35% 49% 50%
2/3/2014 20pm Ryuku M6.4 2/3/2014 21pm N Taiwan M6+   Medium (Taiwan) 1.44 1.52 2.15 2 59% 34% 60%
13/3/2014 17pm Kyushu M6.3 10/3/2014 17pm Kyushu M6+   Fair 1.66 1.52 1.92 1.3 38% 34% 60%
21/3/2014 14pm Nicobar M6.3 21/3/2014 17pm Nicobar M7+   Medium (N Sumatra) 1.43 1.52 3.71 2 53% 42% 60%
4/5/2014 20pm E Honshu M6.0 4/5/2014 21pm E Honshu M6+   Medium 1.6 1.81 4.2 0.6 70% 49% 70%
5/5/2014 11am Thailand (Chang Rai) M6.0 5/5/2014 9am Phils (Quezon) M6+   Less (Baguio) 1.6 1.81 2 1.2 37% 37% 40%
14/5/2014 21pm Yap M6.2 14/5/2014 23pm N Marianas M6+   Fair (Surigao) 1.48 1.81 1.83 1.2 29% 26% 50%
15/5/2014 08am Yap M6.3 15/5/2014 13pm Marianas M7+   Less (Surigao) 1.48 1.81 1.8 2 23% 24% 60%
15/5/2014 10am Phils (Negros) M6.2 15/5/2014 11am Moro Gulf M6+   High (Gensan) 1.48 1.81 1.8 1.6 35% 24% 60%
18/5/2014 1am Off N Sumatra M6.0 18/5/2014 0am N Sumatra M6+   High 1.46 1.81 2.9 2 58% 32% 40%
21/5/2014 16pm Bay of Bengal M6.0 21/5/2014 23pm Indian M6+   Fair (N Sumatra) 1.49 1.81 4 1.2 40% 38% 50%
14/6/2014 11am S Indian Ocean M6.3 14/6/2014 15pm W Java M8+   Fair (W Java) 1.42 1.67 1.7 1.6 44% 59% 70%
29/6/2014 6am Volcano Isles M6.2 29/6/2014 2am Izu Isles M6+   Fair (Kyushu) 1.44 1.67 2.2 0.6 29% 32% 50%
30/6/2014 21pm Bonin Isles M6.2 1/7/2014 1am Izu Isles M6+   Fair (Kyushu) 1.42 1.67 2.3 1.3 22% 22% 40%
5/7/2014 10am North Sumatra M6.0 5/7/2014 7am South Sumatra M6+   Less 1.38 1.33 1.8 0.2 29% 28% 50%
11/7/2014 19pm Off E Honshu M6.5 11/7/2014 13pm E Honshu M6+   Medium 1.5 1.33 2.1 1 71% 59% 50%
14/7/2014 08am Gensan M6.3 14/7/2014 09am Sulawesi M6+   Fair 1.67 1.33 2.4 0.7 45% 38% 70%
20/7/2014 19pm Kurl Isles M6.5 20/7/2014 21pm Kuril Isles M7+   Med-Hi 1.31 1.33 1.53 1.7 53% 30% 50%

Europe-Africa

Event Date Actual Time UTC Actual Location Actual Strength Forecast Date Time UTC Forecast Location Strength Lunar Forecast
24/01/14 03am Ascension Island M5.3 30/01/14 21pm Ascension Island   L
26/01/14 14pm Greece M6.0 28/01/14 17pm SC Greece M5.8 L
26/01/14 20pm Greece M5.3 28/01/14 17pm SC Greece M5.8 L
1/2/2014 17pm Greece M5.0 1/2/2014 5am S Greece (Pirgos)   L
3/2/2014 3am Greece M6.0 3/2/2014 6am S Greece (Pirgos)   H
4/4/2014 20pm S Greece M5.7 6/4/2014 19pm S Aegean M5.8 H
7/4/2014 19pm France M5.0 20/4/2014 19pm E France M5 L
30/4/2014 16pm N of Ascension Island M5.7 4/5/2014 14pm Ascension Island   H
12/5/2014 1am Albania M5.0 13/5/2014 3am Adriatic (N Albania) M6.9 ML
16/5/2014 21pm Ascension Island M5.1 17/5/2014 4am Ascension Island M5.8 L
19/5/2014 1am Albania M5.2 20/5/2014 7am Croatia (Dubrovnic) M6 MH
24/5/2014 9am Aegean Sea M6.9 24/5/2014 20pm N Aegean Sea M7 MH
24/5/2014 10am W Turkey M5.0 24/5/2014 20pm N Aegean Sea M7 MH
26/5/2014 20pm Azores Isles M5.0 19/5/2014 6am Azores Isles   L
11/6/2014 4am E Mediterranean M5.1 11/6/2014 12 (noon) Med - N of Cyprus M5.7 H
29/6/2014 17pm Russia (Caucasus) M5.1 29/6/2014 6am SW Ukraine M5 MH
30/6/2014 2am N Ascension Island M5.7 30/6/2014 13pm Ascension Island   MH
1/7/2014 13pm C Mid-Atlantic Ridge M5.0 30/6/2014 13pm Ascension Island   MH
4/7/2014 6am S Mid-Atlantic Ridge M5.0 4/7/2014 6am S Mid-Atlantic Ridge   MH
26/7/2014 17pm S Mid-Atlantic Ridge M5.0 27/7/2014 4am Mid-Atlantic Ridge   ML
27/7/2014 2am N Mid-Atlantic Ridge M5.5 27/7/2014 4am Mid-Atlantic Ridge   ML
29/7/2014 22pm N Mid-Atlantic Ridge M5.1 27/7/2014 20pm Mid-Atlantic Ridge   ML
30/7/2014 2am N Mid-Atlantic Ridge M5.3 27/7/2014 20pm Mid-Atlantic Ridge   ML
1/8/2014 4am N Algeria M5.6 30/7/2014 1am NE Morocco M6.4 L