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Daily Summary Warning - May 16th, 2023

The earthquake activity (M6+ eccentricity = imbalance) in Asia-Pacific is about average at 1.35 today (high) compared with the typical high month of May average of 1.35 (note the lunar Phase Ratio (PR) is now (since 23^rd Feb) at PR>1 so that large quakes are more likely in the periods close to full moon and new moon. The activity in the last 2 weeks in Asia-Pacific region is still moderately high with M5+ almost every day and one or more M6+ events every two to three weeks.

Results from Yesterday 15th May 2023- 0hrs to 24hrs UTC):

Asia-Pacific: according to our information there were a total of 5 events of M4+ and 2 events of M4.5+ in the region under consideration. Of these 5 out of 7 events could be associated with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was low, with strength less than expected as the forecast indicated some events in the M5.5+ level.

America: according to our information there were a total of 13 events of M4+ and 1 events of M4.5+ with 1 event of M5+ (NW Argentina – Jujuy) in this area during the 24-hour period.  Of these, 15 of 15 events could be associated with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was low to moderate with strength as expected. There were total of 40 ineffective forecasts for this period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 32%).

Europe/Africa: - 1 x M4+ and 1 x M4.5+ events were noted in this region during the 24-hour period, 2 of which could be identified with our hourly forecasts for the day. So that activity was low as expected. There were total of 42 ineffective hourly forecasts for this period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 5%).

Forecast for Today:

Today 16th May 2023 (UTC/GMT), the overall daily M5+ probability in Asia- Pacific is medium 30% (am) to low 24% (pm) and the M5+ stress eccentricity is 3.0 (high) which indicates more focussed activity in the region today. The lunar phase strength is 43% (medium), so that M4+ to M5 + intensity quakes are expected in Asia-Pacific today.

Asia-Pacific: probability (2.0=max:M5+ stress transfer/ %= overall incl. lunar) today is for N/S Sumatra/ Nicobar/Myanmar (Low (am)/Med-lo (pm)), 0.5/23%(am) /25% (pm)), Java (Med-lo/Low, 0.0/27%/23%), Gensan/ Davao/ S. of Phils. (Low/ Med-hi, 0.2/23%/34%), Surigao/Samar (Med-lo/Med-lo, 1.6/26%/26%), Manila/Batangas/ Mindoro (Medium/Medium, 0.0/23%/23%), Baguio (Medium/ Low, 0.0/23%/16%), Taiwan/Ryukyu (Med-hi/Low, 0.8/32%/21%), Kyushu, Izu/Bonin isles (Med-Lo, 0.4, 20%/19%), E Honshu/ Tokyo (Medium /Medium, 2.0/39%/37%), Hokkaido/Kuril (Medium/Med-lo, 0.0/32%/23%).

America: Activity has been about average, recently with M4.5+ daily and M6+ every 2 weeks.  – low to moderate activity most likely M4+ to M5+ today: S Mexico, SC/NC Chile, N/S/C Peru, N/W. Argentina, Alaska, S/Off N. California, Baja, W Canada, Colombia, S. Sandwich Isles, S of Cuba, Dominican Republic, Panama, El Salvador, Costa Rica.

Europe/Africa: - most likely M4+ to M4.5+ - low activity today –Aegean, Albania, Austria, Ascension Island, Mid-Atlantic Ridge, S. Spain, France, C. Italy, Greece, Croatia, Cyprus, Germany, Bosnia, Poland, Slovenia, E/ W. Turkey, S. Iran, Reykjanes Ridge, Svalbard, S. Africa, Prince Edward Isles.

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