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Copyright of all items in this Earthtremors.org web-site is with the author.
Prediction vs Actual - December 2013 – Europe
Hourly dynamic Prediction vs Actual events for Europe and Africa - December 2013 Click on the pdf files below to see the Prediction vs Actual comparison between forecasts using the dynamic prediction on the left and actual events occurring in the middle - the analysis of probability for each day based on lunar phase related to longitude is given on the right (however this does not seem to be very accurate, so attempts will be made to improve on this next year) . 01-04Dec13it 05-08Dec13it 09-12Dec13it 13-16Dec13it 17-20Dec13it 21-24Dec13it 25-28Dec13it 29Dec13-01Jan14it Comparison of Actual Events (M4+) vs Hourly earthquake forecast for Europe for month of December 2013 - derived from relative acceleration of sun and moon compared with observer location at Rome, Italy. The vector sum of acceleration is correlated with previous events for the past 38 years (period of records available from USGS since 1973). The countries covered by this forecast include those in Europe and Africa - such as UK, France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Greece, Cyprus, Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia, Albania, Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, Red Sea, Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, Georgia, Tanzania, Congo, S Africa and others. To date the forecast does not have any way of assessing strengths - other than reference to the past events - the locations of possible events - appear to be not so accurate as forecasts in Asia and America - possibly because events are less tectonic in nature. However the forecast should act as an indicator of possible events - within a few days (and sometimes a few hours). The table should be viewed in conjunction with the lunar calendar for Europe which is derived from the location of sun and moon relative to observer in Rome at zero hrs GMT on each day. It would also be possible to carry out Observer Sub-latitude analysis as has been done for Asia-Pacific and Americas as well as stress transfer and probability analysis on a daily basis taking account of recent events - this only done for Asia-Pacific to date. Clearly the Europe and Africa Region is not so active as the Asia-Pacific and Americas (west coast). It is also not so tectonic in nature, so less predictable using these methods.