Posts
Copyright of all items in this Earthtremors.org web-site is with the author.
Prediction vs Actual - February 2014 – Americas
Hourly earthquake Prediction vs Actual events for February 2014 in North and South America Click on the pdf files below to see the Prediction vs Actual comparison between forecasts using the dynamic prediction on the left and actual events occurring in the middle - the analysis of stress and probability for each day is given on the right. The key to strength forecasts is ocher for "low", light blue for "fair", green for "medium", dark blue for "medium-high" and cyan for "high"
Hourly earthquake Prediction vs Actual earthquake occurrence for America for month of February 2014 - this is derived from relative acceleration of sun and moon compared with observer location at LA, California. The vector sum of acceleration is correlated with previous events for the past 38 years (period of records available from USGS since 1973). The countries covered by this forecast include those in North and South America - such as Alaska, Canada, USA (Washington, Oregon, California, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Venezuela, W Brazil, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina and others. To date the forecast does not have any way of assessing strengths - other than reference to the past events - the locations of possible events - appear to be not so accurate as forecasts in Asia - possibly because events are less tectonic in nature. However the forecast should act as an indicator of possible events - within a few days (and sometimes a few hours). The table should be viewed in conjunction with the lunar calendars for America which are derived from the location of sun and moon relative to observer in LA at zero hrs GMT on each day - there is one calendar for Phase Ratio > 1 and another for Phase Ratio < 1. At the present time the PR>1 calendar should be more accurate as more events are occurring close to the new moon and full moon (days 7 and 21). Reference should also be made to the lunar/ solar sub-latitude table for February. For today and tomorrow prediction please see 48hr dynamic forecast for Americas