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Disclaimer: – As earthquake prediction is still in its infancy, the accuracy of information provided on this web-site cannot be guaranteed by the author, the web-site owner or the hosting organization, neither is any liability accepted by these persons or organizations for any incident or accident resulting out of actions taken by persons as a result of information posted herein.
Copyright of all items in this Earthtremors.org web-site is with the author.

Daily Summary Warning - April 23th 2024

2024-04-13 00:00:00 Admin Earthquake Probabilities

The earthquake activity (M6+ eccentricity = imbalance) in Asia-Pacific is about average at 1.45 today compared with the typical month of April average of 1.45 (note the lunar Phase Ratio (PR) is now (since 6th Oct) at PR<1 so that large quakes are more likely in the periods close to first and 3rd quarter of the moon. The activity in the last 2 weeks in Asia-Pacific region has been low recently with M5+ almost every day and one or more M6+ events every 7 weeks.

Results from Yesterday 12th April 2024- 0hrs to 24hrs UTC):

Asia-Pacific: according to our information there were a total of 4 events of M4+ and 7 events of M4.5+ with 1 event of M5+ (S. Xinjiang). Of these about 6 out of 12 events could be associated with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was low to moderate, and as expected as our daily strength forecast indicated some events in the M5+ level.

America: according to our information there were a total of 14 events of M4+ and 1 event of M4.5 in this area during the 24-hour period.  Of these, 14 of 15 events could be associated with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was low and as expected. There were total of 18 ineffective forecasts for this period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 56%).

Europe/Africa: - 1 x M4+ and 1 x M4.5 events were noted in this region during the 24-hour period, 1 of which could be identified with our hourly forecasts for the day. So that activity was low and less than expected. There were total of 24 ineffective hourly forecasts for this period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 4%).

Forecast for Today:

Today 13th April 2024 (UTC/GMT), the overall daily M5+ probability in Asia- Pacific is Medium 34% and the M5+ stress eccentricity is 1.8 (low) which means balanced activity in the region today. The lunar phase strength is 37% (low), so that M4+ to M5 + intensity quakes are expected in Asia-Pacific today

Asia-Pacific: probability (2.0=max:M5+ stress transfer/ %= overall incl. lunar) today is for N/S Sumatra/ Nicobar/Myanmar (Med-hi N)/Med-lo S)), 1.4/40%(N) 28%(S)), Java (Low, 2.0/23%), Gensan/ Davao/ S. of Phils. (Medium, 0.9/34%), Surigao/ Samar (Med-lo, 1.7/34%), Manila/Batangas/ Mindoro (Medium, 1.5/43%), Baguio (Low, 1.9/30%), Taiwan/Ryukyu/China (Med-lo 0.9/36%), Kyushu, Izu/Bonin isles (Med-Lo, 1.1/26%), E Honshu/ Tokyo (Medium, 0.7/35%), Hokkaido/Kuril (Medium, 0.0/28%)

America: Activity has been less than average, recently with M4.5+ daily and M6+ every 4 weeks.  – low activity most likely M4+ to M4.5+ today: S. Mexico, NC/SC Chile, N.C.S. Peru, NW Argentina, Baja, Alaska, S. California, Idaho, Colombia, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Venezuela, El Salvador, S. Bolivia.

Europe/Africa: - most likely M4+ to M4.5+ - low activity today –Atlantic, Azores, Wales, Gulf of Aden, Morocco, Lebanon, C. Italy, Greece, Crete, Cyprus, Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, Georgia, NW Turkey, Ethiopia, Congo.

Disclaimer: - As earthquake prediction is still in its infancy, the accuracy of information provided on this web-site cannot be guaranteed by the author, the web-site owner or the hosting organization, neither is any liability accepted by these persons or organizations for any incident or accident resulting out of actions taken by persons as a result of information posted herein. Copyright of all items in this earthtremors.org web-site is with the author.