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Daily Summary Warning - April 19th 2024

The earthquake activity (M6+ eccentricity = imbalance) in Asia-Pacific is less than average at 1.30 today compared with the typical month of April average of 1.45 (note the lunar Phase Ratio (PR) is now (since 6^th Oct) at PR<1 so that large quakes are more likely in the periods close to first and 3^rd quarter of the moon. The activity in the last 2 weeks in Asia-Pacific region has been low recently with M5+ almost every day and one or more M6+ events every 7 weeks.

Results from Yesterday 18^th April 2024- 0hrs to 24hrs UTC):

Asia-Pacific: according to our information there were a total of 3 events of M4+ and 6 events of M4.5+ with 2 events of M5+ (Volcano Isles and W. Xizang). Of these about 11 out of 11 events could be associated with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was low to moderate, and as expected as our daily strength forecast indicated some events in the M5+ level.

America: according to our information there were a total of 21 events of M4+ and 4 events of M4.5 with 1 event of M5+ (Gulf of California) and 1 event of M5.5+ (Gulf of California) in this area during the 24-hour period.  Of these, 10 of 27 events could be associated with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was low to moderate-hi and greater than expected. There were total of 30 ineffective forecasts for this period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 28%).

Europe/Africa: - 7 x M4+ and 1 x M4.5 with 1 x M5+ (S. Mid-Atlantic Ridge) and 1 x M5.5+ (C. Turkey) events were noted in this region during the 24-hour period, 4 of which could be identified with our hourly forecasts for the day. So that activity was low to moderate-hi and greater than expected. There were total of 24 ineffective hourly forecasts for this period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 16%).

Forecast for Today:

Today 19^th April 2024 (UTC/GMT), the overall daily M5+ probability in Asia- Pacific is Medium 30% and the M5+ stress eccentricity is 2.8 (high) which means focussed activity in the region today. The lunar phase strength is 35% (low), so that M4+ to M5 + intensity quakes are expected in Asia-Pacific today

Asia-Pacific: probability (2.0=max:M5+ stress transfer/ %= overall incl. lunar) today is for N/S Sumatra/ Nicobar/Myanmar (Medium N)/Medium S)), 1.7/24%(N) 24%(S)), Java (Med-lo, 0.5/15%), Gensan/ Davao/ S. of Phils. (Med-lo, 0.5/16%), Surigao/ Samar (Med-lo, 0.4/17%), Manila/Batangas/ Mindoro (Medium, 2.0/15%), Baguio (Med-lo, 0.6/18%), Taiwan/Ryukyu/China (Medium, 0.5/30%), Kyushu, Izu/Bonin isles (Med-Lo, 0.8/15%), E Honshu/ Tokyo (Med-lo, 0.5/20%), Hokkaido/Kuril (Med-hi, 0.5/27%)

America: Activity has been less than average, recently with M4.5+ daily and M6+ every 4 weeks.  – low activity most likely M4+ to M4.5+ today: S. Mexico, NC/SC Chile, N.C.S. Peru, NW Argentina, Baja, Alaska, W. Canada, Colombia, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Puerto Rico, W. Brazil, El Salvador, S. Bolivia, Guatemala, S. Sandwich Isles. Ecuador.

Europe/Africa: - most likely M4+ to M4.5+ - low activity today –Aegean, Algeria, Armenia, Atlantic, Ascension Island, Austria, Wales, Morocco, NE/C. Italy, Greece, Crete, Ionian Sea, Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia, Germany, Romania, W/ E Turkey, Mayotte, Prince Edward Isles, Eritrea, Djibouti, Tanzania.

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