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Daily Summary Warning - April 20th 2024

The earthquake activity (M6+ eccentricity = imbalance) in Asia-Pacific is less than average at 1.30 today compared with the typical month of April average of 1.45 (note the lunar Phase Ratio (PR) is now (since 6^th Oct) at PR<1 so that large quakes are more likely in the periods close to first and 3^rd quarter of the moon. The activity in the last 2 weeks in Asia-Pacific region has been low recently with M5+ almost every day and one or more M6+ events every 7 weeks.

Results from Yesterday 19^th April 2024- 0hrs to 24hrs UTC):

Asia-Pacific: according to our information there were a total of 4 events of M4+ and 7 events of M4.5+. Of these about 9 out of 11 events could be associated with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was low, and less than expected as our daily strength forecast indicated some events in the M5+ level.

America: according to our information there were a total of 15 events of M4+ and 3 events of M4.5 in this area during the 24-hour period.  Of these, 9 of 18 events could be associated with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was low and less than expected. There were total of 34 ineffective forecasts for this period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 22%).

Europe/Africa: - 5 x M4+ and 0 x M4.5 with 1 x M5+ (C. Mid-Atlantic Ridge) events were noted in this region during the 24-hour period, 3 of which could be identified with our hourly forecasts for the day. So that activity was low to moderate- and greater than expected. There were total of 38 ineffective hourly forecasts for this period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 7%).

Forecast for Today:

Today 20^th April 2024 (UTC/GMT), the overall daily M5+ probability in Asia- Pacific is Med-hi 37% (am) to High 42% (pm) and the M5+ stress eccentricity is 2.5 (medium) which indicates widespread activity in the region today. The lunar phase strength is 48% (medium), so that M4+ to M5.5 + intensity quakes are expected in Asia-Pacific today.

Asia-Pacific: probability (2.0=max:M5+ stress transfer/ %= overall incl. lunar) today is for N/S Sumatra/ Nicobar/Myanmar (High(am)/Med-hi(pm)), 0.9/31%(am) /30% (pm)), Java (Med-lo/Med-lo, 0.8/20%/21%), Gensan/ Davao/ S. of Phils. (Med-lo/ Low, 0.8/23%/21%), Surigao/Samar (Low/Med-lo, 0.2/21%/22%), Manila/Batangas/ Mindoro (Med-lo/Medium, 0.3/27%/35%), Baguio (Low/ Medium, 0.3/26%/36%), Taiwan/Ryukyu/China (Medium/Med-hi, 0.4/39%/40%), Kyushu, Izu/Bonin isles (Med-Lo, 0.9, 24%/25%), E Honshu/ Tokyo (Medium /Medium, 1.7/36%/37%), Hokkaido/Kuril (Med-hi/High, 2.0/36%/38%).

America: Activity has been less than average, recently with M4.5+ daily and M6+ every 4 weeks.  – low to moderate activity most likely M4+ to M5+ today: S. Mexico, NC/SC Chile, N.C.S. Peru, NW Argentina, Baja, Alaska, W. Canada, Colombia, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Puerto Rico, W. Brazil, El Salvador, S. Bolivia, Guatemala, S. Sandwich Isles. S. Shetland Isles.

Europe/Africa: - most likely M4+ to M4.5+ - low activity today –Aegean, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Atlantic, Ascension Island, France, Strait of Gibraltar, NE/C. Italy, Greece, Crete, Ionian Sea, Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia, Germany, Romania, Georgia, W/ E Turkey, Mayotte, Prince Edward Isles, Eritrea, Djibouti, Tanzania, Mozambique.

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