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Daily Summary Warning - April 22nd 2024

The earthquake activity (M6+ eccentricity = imbalance) in Asia-Pacific is less than average at 1.32 today compared with the typical month of April average of 1.45 (note the lunar Phase Ratio (PR) is now (since 6^th Oct) at PR<1 so that large quakes are more likely in the periods close to first and 3^rd quarter of the moon. The activity in the last 2 weeks in Asia-Pacific region has been low recently with M5+ almost every day and one or more M6+ events every 7 weeks.

Results from Yesterday 21^st April 2024- 0hrs to 24hrs UTC):

Asia-Pacific: according to our information there were a total of 11 events of M4+ and 3 events of M4.5+ with 1 event of M5+ (Taiwan). Of these about 15 out of 15 events could be associated with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was low to moderate, and less than expected as our daily strength forecast indicated some events in the M5.5+ level.

America: according to our information there were a total of 10 events of M4+ and 4 events of M4.5 with 1 event of M5+ (Off S Mexico – Jalisco) in this area during the 24-hour period.  Of these, 14 of 15 events could be associated with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was low to moderate and as expected. There were total of 43 ineffective forecasts for this period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 29%).

Europe/Africa: - 0 x M4+ and 1 x M4.5 with 1 x M5+ (Iceland) events were noted in this region during the 24-hour period, 0 of which could be identified with our hourly forecasts for the day. So that activity was low to moderate - and greater than expected. There were total of 43 ineffective hourly forecasts for this period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 0%).

Forecast for Today:

Today 22^nd April 2024 (UTC/GMT), the overall daily M5+ probability in Asia- Pacific is High 41% and the M5+ stress eccentricity is 2.6 (high) which means focussed activity in the region today. The lunar phase strength is 41% (medium), so that M4+ to M5.5 + intensity quakes are expected in Asia-Pacific today

Asia-Pacific: probability (2.0=max:M5+ stress transfer/ %= overall incl. lunar) today is for N/S Sumatra/ Nicobar/Myanmar (Med-lo N)/Med-lo S)), 0.3/19%(N) 18%(S)), Java (Low, 0.4/17%), Gensan/ Davao/ S. of Phils. (Med-hi, 1.5/32%), Surigao/ Samar (Medium, 0.8/33%), Manila/Batangas/ Mindoro (High, 0.3/35%), Baguio (High, 0.3/39%), Taiwan/Ryukyu/China (Medium, 0.4/38%), Kyushu, Izu/Bonin isles (Med-Lo, 2.0/26%), E Honshu/ Tokyo (Medium, 1.0/32%), Hokkaido/Kuril (Medium, 0.6/33%)

America: Activity has been less than average, recently with M4.5+ daily and M6+ every 4 weeks.  – low to moderate activity most likely M4+ to M5+ today: S. Mexico, NC/SC Chile, N.C.S. Peru, NW Argentina, Alaska, S/N. California, W. Canada, Colombia, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Puerto Rico, W. Brazil, El Salvador, S. Bolivia, Guatemala, S. Sandwich Isles, Ecuador, S Pacific Rise.

Europe/Africa: - most likely M4+ to M5+ - low to moderate activity today –Aegean, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Atlantic, Ascension Island, Strait of Gibraltar, NE/C. Italy, Greece, Crete, Ionian Sea, Croatia, Macedonia, Georgia, W/ E Turkey, Mayotte, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Tanzania, Mozambique, Svalbard, Jan Mayen Island.

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