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Daily Summary Warning - April 29th 2024
The earthquake activity (M6+ eccentricity = imbalance) in
Asia-Pacific is greater than average at 1.60 today compared with the typical month
of April average of 1.39 (note the lunar Phase Ratio (PR) is now (since 22nd
April) at PR>1 so that large quakes are more likely in the periods close to new
and full moon. The activity in the last 2 weeks in Asia-Pacific region has been
high recently with M5.5+ almost every day and one or more M6+ events every 3 weeks.
Results from Yesterday 28th
April 2024- 0hrs to 24hrs UTC):
Asia-Pacific: according to our information there were a total of 8 events of M4+
and 5 events of M4.5. Of these about 8 out of 13 events could be associated
with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was low, and less
than expected as our daily strength forecast indicated some events in the M5+
level.
America: according to our information there were a total of 18 events of
M4+ and 1 event of M4.5 in this area during the 24-hour period. Of these, 13 of 19 events could be associated
with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was low and as
expected. There were total of 18 ineffective forecasts for this period (M4+
event/ forecast rate 54%).
Europe/Africa: - 2 x M4+ and 1 x M4.5 with 1 event of M5+ (Eritrea) events were noted
in this region during the 24-hour period, 0 of which could be identified with
our hourly forecasts for the day. So that activity was low to moderate - and greater
than expected. There were total of 16 ineffective hourly forecasts for this
period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 0%).
Forecast for Today:
Today 29th April 2024 (UTC/GMT), the overall
daily M5+ probability in Asia- Pacific is Med-hi 37% and the M5+ stress
eccentricity is 2.3 (medium) which means widespread activity in the region
today. The lunar phase strength is 37% (low), so that M4+ to M5 + intensity
quakes are expected in Asia-Pacific today
Asia-Pacific: probability (2.0=max:M5+ stress transfer/ %= overall incl. lunar)
today is for N/S Sumatra/ Nicobar/Myanmar (Medium N)/Medium S)), 1.8/70%(N)
49%(S)), Java (Med-lo, 0.3/33%), Gensan/ Davao/ S. of Phils. (Medium,
1.7/48%), Surigao/ Samar (Med-lo, 1.2/31%),
Manila/Batangas/ Mindoro (Med-hi, 0.0/45%), Baguio (Low, 0.6/33%),
Taiwan/Ryukyu/China (Med-lo, 0.8/32%), Kyushu, Izu/Bonin isles (Med-Lo, 2.0/36%),
E Honshu/ Tokyo (Medium, 1.0/60%), Hokkaido/Kuril (High, 0.0/45%)
America: Activity has been less than average, recently with M4.5+ daily and
M6+ every 4 weeks. – low activity most likely
M4+ to M4.5+ today: S. Mexico, NC/SC Chile, N. Peru, NW Argentina,
Alaska, S. California, Off Oregon, Trinidad & Tobago, Colombia, S. Bolivia,
Nicaragua, S. Sandwich Isles, Panama, Costa Rica, W. Brazil.
Europe/Africa: - most likely M4+ to M4.5+ - low activity today –Algeria, Ascension Island, Atlantic, France, Austria, Strait
of Gibraltar, C. Italy, Greece, Crete, Cyprus, Croatia, Serbia, Georgia, C.
Turkey, Tanzania.
Disclaimer: - As earthquake prediction is still in
its infancy, the accuracy of information provided on this web-site cannot be
guaranteed by the author, the web-site owner or the hosting organization,
neither is any liability accepted by these persons or organizations for any
incident or accident resulting out of actions taken by persons as a result of
information posted herein. Copyright of all items in this earthtremors.org
web-site is with the author.