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Daily Summary Warning - April 24th 2024
The earthquake activity (M6+ eccentricity = imbalance) in
Asia-Pacific is less than average at 1.44 today compared with the typical month
of April average of 1.45 (note the lunar Phase Ratio (PR) is now (since 22nd
April) at PR>1 so that large quakes are more likely in the periods close to new
and full moon. The activity in the last 2 weeks in Asia-Pacific region has been
high recently with M5.5+ almost every day and one or more M6+ events every 3 weeks.
Results from Yesterday 23rd
April 2024- 0hrs to 24hrs UTC):
Asia-Pacific: according to our information there were a total of 16 events of M4+
and 9 events of M4.5+ with 3 events of M5+ (2 x Taiwan+ 2 x Phils- Batan Isles)
with 1 event of M5.5+ (Taiwan). Of these about 12 out of 29 events could be
associated with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was moderate-hi,
and as expected as our daily strength forecast indicated some events in the M5.5+
level.
America: according to our information there were a total of 6 events of M4+
and 1 event of M4.5 in this area during the 24-hour period. Of these, 7 of 7 events could be associated
with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was low and less
than expected. There were total of 44 ineffective forecasts for this period (M4+
event/ forecast rate 13%).
Europe/Africa: - 0 x M4+ and 0 x M4.5 with 2 x M5+ (Azores and N. Mid-Atlantic
Ridge) events were noted in this region during the 24-hour period, 1 of which could
be identified with our hourly forecasts for the day. So that activity was moderate
- and as expected. There were total of 47 ineffective hourly forecasts for this
period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 2%).
Forecast for Today:
Today 24th April 2024 (UTC/GMT), the overall
daily M5+ probability in Asia- Pacific is High 43% and the M5+ stress
eccentricity is 8.2 (high) which means focussed activity in the region
today. The lunar phase strength is 53% (high), so that M4+ to M5.5 + intensity
quakes are expected in Asia-Pacific today
Asia-Pacific: probability (2.0=max:M5+ stress transfer/ %= overall incl. lunar)
today is for N/S Sumatra/ Nicobar/Myanmar (Med-hi N)/Med-lo S)), 0.0/53%(N)
36%(S)), Java (Low, 0.0/34%), Gensan/ Davao/ S. of Phils. (Medium, 0.0/45%),
Surigao/ Samar (Medium, 0.0/57%), Manila/Batangas/ Mindoro (Medium, 0.7/62%),
Baguio (High, 0.3/39%), Taiwan/Ryukyu/China (Med-hi, 2.0/75%), Kyushu,
Izu/Bonin isles (Med-Lo, 0.0/43%), E Honshu/ Tokyo (Medium, 0.0/69%), Hokkaido/Kuril
(High, 0.0/49%)
America: Activity has been less than average, recently with M4.5+ daily and
M6+ every 4 weeks. – low to moderate activity
most likely M4+ to M5+ today: S. Mexico, NC/SC Chile, N.C.S. Peru, NW
Argentina, Alaska, S/N. California, Oregon, W. Canada, Colombia,
El Salvador, Costa Rica, Puerto Rico, W. Brazil, El Salvador, S. Bolivia,
Guatemala, S. Sandwich Isles, Ecuador, S Pacific Rise, Venezuela, Panama.
Europe/Africa: - most likely M4+ to M5+ - low to moderate activity today –Aegean, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Atlantic, Ascension
Island, Azerbaijan, Strait of Gibraltar, NE/C. Italy, Sicily, Greece, Crete,
Ionian Sea, Cyprus, Germany, Croatia, Macedonia, Georgia, W/ E Turkey, Mayotte,
Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Tanzania, Mozambique, Svalbard, Jan Mayen Island,
Congo.
Disclaimer: - As earthquake prediction is still in
its infancy, the accuracy of information provided on this web-site cannot be
guaranteed by the author, the web-site owner or the hosting organization,
neither is any liability accepted by these persons or organizations for any
incident or accident resulting out of actions taken by persons as a result of
information posted herein. Copyright of all items in this earthtremors.org
web-site is with the author.